By: Brandon Carr
There are only three football games left in the NFL season. Two of these games are this Sunday and they happen to decide what two teams will be playing in this year’s Super Bowl….
Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs
3:05pm (CBS)
Injury Report
Titans:
Jayon Brown/Questionable (Shoulder)
Jack Conklin/Questionable (Shoulder)
Rashaan Evans/Questionable (Foot)
Adoree’ Jackson/Questionable (Foot)
Cody Hollister/Questionable (Ankle)
Adam Humphries/Questionable (Ankle)
David Long/Questionable (Knee)
Chiefs:
Chris Jones/Questionable (Calf)
LeSean McCoy/Questionable (Illness)
Matt Moore/Questionable (Illness)
Background: After upsetting the number one seeded Baltimore Ravens, the sixth seeded Tennessee Titans are one win away from advancing to their first Super Bowl since 1999. The Kansas City Chiefs after coming back down 24 points to the Houston Texans are also one win away to the Super Bowl. The Chiefs have not appeared in a Super Bowl since 1969. Both of these teams played in Week 10 of this season. The Titans ended up winning this game 35-32 off of a game winning field goal. Both teams now meet again who both are looking to end a long streak of not being in the Super Bowl; but only one can come out on top…..
KEYS TO THE GAME
Derrick Henry: Derrick Henry is the hottest player in the NFL right now. He has been unstoppable this postseason. Henry is the first player in NFL history to rush for 180+ yards in three consecutive games. No team has had an answer for Derrick Henry and the Kansas City Chiefs are going to have their hands full. The Chiefs rank 26th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed this season, which isn’t a good sign when facing Henry. Chiefs linebacker Anthony Hitchens had this to say about how to stop Derrick Henry, “You’ve got to just take his legs out,” Hitchens said. “We’ve talked all week about killing the engine. Hit him in his thighs and his legs, chop them down. When you tackle him high he tends to carry you for about 4-5 more yards. Hit him low, all legal within the game, but you’ve got to just hit him lower.” (Chiefs Wire). There clearly is a game plan that is in place to stop Derrick Henry for the Chiefs, but that is a tall order for the Chiefs defense. If Derrick Henry can run wild on this Chiefs defense and control the time of possession, then Patrick Mahomes will spend a lot of time on the sidelines this game.
Keeping Up With The Chiefs Offense: The Kansas City Chiefs offense is one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. Chiefs wide receiver, Tyreek Hill had this to say about his offense, “I feel like nobody in the NFL can guard any of us, and that’s no disrespect to nobody,” Hill told reporters on Wednesday, via NFL.com. “That’s just the confidence that I got in myself and the wideouts I’ve got around me, including the tight ends and the running backs. I feel like no DB unit, no secondary unit, no linebacker, any defense can guard any of us. So man-to-man is just easy for us to beat. If you just allow us to run through zones, it’s even easier.” (ProFootballTalk). Hill clearly is very confident in his offense to put up points this game. Which he should be because the Chiefs just last week put up a whopping 51 points on the Houston Texans’ defense. Patrick Mahomes led the way with 374 total yards and 5 total touchdowns. Tight end Travis Kelce also had a monster game with 10 receptions for 134 yards and 3 touchdowns. However, the Titans defense has gotten hot at the right moment, giving up 25 points in the two post season games they have played. The Titans defense has talked about how confident they are in stopping this Chiefs high powered offense. Safety Kenny Vaccaro said, “They have Patrick. They have all of this speed. I don’t care. We’re going to find a way to win.” (B/R Ty Dunne). Kevin Byard of the Titans also had this to say, “Nobody in our room fears anybody. Nobody fears the amount of talent they have, because we have talent, too.” (B/R Ty Dunne). The Titans defense is riding on confidence as well and they are going to have to play their best football this Sunday in order to win this football game.
Ryan Tannehill: Ryan Tannehill has been just a game manager in these postseason wins. He has not thrown for over 100 yards in any game yet this postseason which needs to change this Sunday. The Chiefs will put up points this game, no matter how good the Titans defense has been this postseason. Derrick Henry can’t be the reason of why the Titans win this game. What happens if this game turns into a shootout? How is Ryan Tannehill going to keep up with Patrick Mahomes? He will have to play his best game yet against a Chiefs defense who is 6th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game. A couple of big throws from Tannehill won’t get the job done, he will need to have a huge outing to give his team a chance to win.
Conclusion: This game will come down to the wire even if the Chiefs are 7.5 point favorites at home. I don’t think the Chiefs are going to have an answer for Derrick Henry, no matter how many guys they put in the box. There has been no answer for this guy in the second half of the NFL season. Especially if Chris Jones misses this game for Kansas City, it will be even harder to stop this guy. However, this doesn’t mean that the Titans are going to win because I believe that the Chiefs offense may be too much for the Titans defense. There are way too many weapons for these guys to handle and even if the Titans control the time of possession this game, I think Mahomes and this offense is too much for this Titans team to overcome. The Chiefs have not lost a game since they lost to the Titans in the regular season. I trust Patrick Mahomes more than I trust Ryan Tannehill to come through in a shootout, which I think will end up happening in this game. I like the Chiefs to hold off the Titans and advance to their first Super Bowl since 1969.
Prediction: Chiefs 35-30
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers
6:40pm (FOX)
Injury Report
Green Bay:
Danny Vitale/Questionable (Knee)
San Francisco:
NONE
Background: The Green Bay Packers are coming off of a huge win against the Seattle Seahawks at home. They now have to travel on the road to play the San Francisco 49ers. The Packers have not appeared in a Super Bowl since 2010 where they would beat the Pittsburgh Steelers. The 49ers last Super Bowl appearance was 2013 where they lost to the Baltimore Ravens. These two teams played in Week 12 of this season and the 49ers blew out the Packers 37-8. Now these two teams will meet again with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Only one of these storied franchises can represent the NFC in this year’s Super Bowl. Who will it be?….
KEYS TO THE GAME
Who Steps Up For The Packers?: The Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams tandem has gotten their groove back at the right time. Adams last week posted 8 receptions for 160 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Seahawks. However, Adams has a tough assignment this Sunday. Richard Sherman has had a resurgence this year. He has reestablished himself as one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. According to PFF, Sherman “allowed just 52.9% of the targets thrown his way to be caught (27 catches, 51 targets) and allowed one reception longer than 20 yards.” This made Sherman PFF’s highest rated cornerback this season. Last time Adams went up against the 49ers, Adams posted 7 receptions for 43 yards and 1 touchdown. The Packers are going to need someone else to step up for them in their passing game. Guys like Allen Lazard, Geronimo Allison, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Jimmy Graham are all accountable. One of these guys needs to step up in this game to give Rodgers another option besides Davante Adams. Out of all of these guys, I give Allen Lazard the best chance to step up as he has been a guy Rodgers has trusted this season who has flashed in some games. Last week, Lazard was held without a catch, that needs to change this week. If Rodgers has to lean on Adams this game, the Packers are going to have a hard time moving the ball through the air.
The Dominance Of The 49ers Front Seven: The 49ers defense has now gotten healthy at the right time of the season. Last week they reminded everyone of why they have one of the best front sevens in the NFL. Last week they completely neutralized Dalvin Cook in the running game. Cook was held to only 26 yards of total offense, while the Vikings offense as a whole was held to only 193 total yards. The main reason for this dominance was because of their ferocious pass rush. Kirk Cousins was sacked 6 times in that game and was pressured throughout the game. When the Packers played this team in Week 12 of the NFL season, Aaron Rodgers was sacked 5 times in that game. The Packers run game overall was solid as a unit they ran for 117 yards total in that game. However, Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander didn’t play in that game and now they are back in the 49ers lineup. The Packers offensive line is going to have its hands full this Sunday with guys like Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, and Arik Armstead coming their way. If the 49ers defensive line can terrorize Rodgers all game, then they will win this game. The Packers are going to have to find ways to get the ball out of Rodgers’ hands quick and Rodgers will have to make a lot of throws from outside the pocket this game in order to ward off this pass rush. The Packers running game with Aaron Jones, needs to be able to be effective this game to make Rodgers’ life easier. Considering what the 49ers just did to the Vikings rushing attack, the Packers are going to have their hands full.
Jimmy Garoppolo: Jimmy G’s postseason debut last week wasn’t anything to write home about. He threw for 131 yards 1 touchdown and 1 interception with a QBR of 74.7. The 49ers leaned more on their rushing attack in the win against the Vikings with 206 total rushing yards as a unit. I expect Aaron Rodgers to put up more points than what Kirk Cousins was able to do last week, which means Jimmy G needs to be more effective this game. Jimmy G last week only threw the ball 19 times, I am expecting that number to go up between 25-30 times this game. This Packers defense is also very slept on. The Packers last week sacked Russell Wilson 5 times and was a big factor in giving the Packers the edge that game. The duo of Preston and Za’Darius Smith both had 2 sacks a piece in that game. Jimmy G has to be able to not make mistakes this game with this defense. Look for guys like George Kittle and Deebo Samuel to be receiving a lot of work in the middle of the field where Jimmy G accels. The 49ers have the ability to win this game running the ball, but Jimmy G will just have to do more than what he did last week and have a great outing.
Conclusion: Aaron Rodgers knows how important this game is for his legacy. He knows all of the people who have been doubting him this season and all of the people who have knocked him for making one Super Bowl. However, I don’t believe that his team can stack up with what the 49ers have. The 49ers are the most balanced football team in the NFL. They can beat you a number of different ways and I believe that it once again will be too much for Aaron Rodgers to overcome. I like the 49ers to win this game and advance to their first Super Bowl since 2013.
Prediction: 27-17 49ers
References:
- https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/01/15/tyreek-hill-nobody-in-nfl-can-guard-chiefs-pass-catchers/
- https://chiefswire.usatoday.com/2020/01/15/kansas-city-chiefs-tennessee-titans-afc-championship-game-how-to-stop-rb-derrick-henry/
- https://www.rotowire.com/football/practice-report.php
- https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2871808-titans-dbs-stopped-lamar-and-brady-and-say-they-can-stop-mahomes-too
Brandon's Breakdowns 