By: Brandon Carr
With the NFL schedule release, a lot of people will now begin to prepare for the 2020 fantasy football season. In this article, I will be breaking down my top 5 running backs for the fantasy football season. These rankings are for half point PPR leagues.
1.) Christian McCaffrey
No surprises here, I have Christian McCaffrey as my RB1 on the season. McCaffrey is coming off of one of the greatest seasons by a running back we have ever seen in the NFL. McCaffrey this past season ran for 1,387 yards, had 1,005 yards through the air with an NFL record 116 receptions by a running back, and had a total of 19 touchdowns on the season. Now will McCaffrey expect to see a slight decrease in numbers? He probably will because I don’t believe he can have a better season than he did last year. However, you can expect McCaffrey to have similar production to where he finishes as the RB1 on the season.
I know some people are worried because of a brand new coaching staff and a new quarterback in town for the Panthers. As well as the statement made by new head coach Matt Rhule that said he wants to avoid having McCaffrey on the field for every snap and to cut back his snaps. I am not worried at all by any of this and here is why.
Joe Brady who many know last year was calling plays for the historic LSU Tigers team last year is the Panthers new offensive coordinator. Brady’s creative play calling is only going to make the Panthers offense better which means more touchdown opportunities for McCaffrey. Along with the spread offensive scheme it’ll open up more running lanes for McCaffrey with less defenders in the box to stop him. Brady also helped now Kansas City Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire catch 55 passes out of the backfield for the Tigers last season, which only means that McCaffrey’s passing volume is going to continue to be high. McCaffrey isn’t going to get 403 touches like he did last year but his volume is still going to be very high even with Matt Rhule wanting to dial back on McCaffrey’s snap count. Even if McCaffrey’s snap count were to go from what it was this past season at 93% to 88% of the snaps which is where Leonard Fournette was last year, that still isn’t a huge drop off. The Panthers also didn’t bring in a running back in free agency and in the draft which suggests McCaffrey’s workload is still going to be high which should cause little to no concern. Don’t expect Mike Davis or Reggie Bonafon to be vultures this season to McCaffrey’s production.
With Teddy Bridgwater now coming in as the starting quarterback this is only going to help McCaffrey. Bridgewater is not known for being a down the field thrower of the football so I expect him to throw a lot of short and intermediate passes in this offense which is where McCaffrey is going to eat in the passing game.
The Panthers offense is overall improved and McCaffrey I can safely say is my RB1 on the season. McCaffrey’s current ADP is 1.01 which is exactly where he should be taken in 2020 drafts no matter the format.
2.) Saquon Barkley
Saquon Barkley is my RB2 on the season. Barkley last season dealt with a high ankle sprain which caused him to miss 3 games and be banged up for most of the season with this injury which immensely hurt his production. However once Barkley started to get more and more healthier throughout the season, he found his groove during the last few weeks of the season. Barkley during the last few weeks of the NFL season was the RB1 when he scored 89.4 fantasy points during those weeks and it seemed like Barkley finally hit his stride during the fantasy playoffs.
The Giants are another team that have made some changes heading into the 2020 season with the hiring of a new head coach in Joe Judge and the hiring of former Dallas Cowboys’ head coach Jason Garrett as their new offensive coordinator. Joe Judge recently had stated that the Giants offense will be similar to what Jason Garrett ran in Dallas. This could mean that Saquon Barkley is going to see a lot of carries this year which means his volume is going to be immense. Ezekiel Elliott with Dallas has seen 300+ carries in every single season of his career except in 2017 when he was suspended for 6 games, so expect Barkley to also receive that type of workload this year with the Giants. Barkley last season saw 73 targets which was 8th among running backs so I expect that he will receive around 85-100 targets this season which gives him a very safe floor with a high ceiling.
The Giants improved their offensive line via the draft by drafting 3 offensive lineman. Most notably offensive tackle Andrew Thomas with the 4th pick in the draft. The Giants are in position to see their offense take a step forward this season with Daniel Jones in his second season along with his weapons such as Darius Slayton, Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard, and Evan Engram which only means Saquon Barkley is bound to have a nice bounce back season this year in fantasy. Barkley’s ADP is currently the 1.02 which is where he needs to be selected with confidence.
3.) Dalvin Cook
Dalvin Cook is my RB3 for the 2020 season. Cook last season finished with the fifth most fantasy points for a running back (266.9) despite missing 2 games and being taken out of 2 games due to injuries. Cook was dominant this season when he was healthy. Cook had 10 games of 20 touches or more and 8 games with over 100 yards from scrimmage in 14 games played.
Cook comes into this season with a new offensive coordinator in Gary Kubiak who was the assistant head coach last season with the Vikings. Kubiak was a huge reason why the running game last season was improved for the Vikings and now with him being the full time offensive coordinator, will only help Cook’s production.
Cook’s 63 targets was 13th among running backs in the NFL even with the games he missed. With Stefon Diggs off to Buffalo, there are 94 targets that he is leaving behind. Although first round pick Justin Jefferson will probably end up seeing most of these targets, Cook still figures to see an uptick in targets. The Vikings were eight in the NFL in running back targets with 126 total targets to that position and 28.6% of the Vikings targets were to running backs which was second most in the NFL. Cook also was first in the NFL with 21 carries inside the 5 yard line which means that he has real touchdown upside in this offense. Cook’s 13 rushing touchdowns was 4th in the NFL despite the missed time.
The Vikings figure to be a run heavy team again this season with Cook being at the helm of this attack. Cook’s ADP is currently 4th but I believe that he will have a top 3 season this year if he remains healthy throughout the course of the season.
4.) Ezekiel Elliott
Ezekiel Elliott is my RB4 for this upcoming season. Zeke finished the season as the RB4 last year with 284.7 fantasy points. Zeke was 4th in the NFL in rushing last season with 1,357 yards on 301 carries along with 54 receptions for 420 yards and 14 total touchdowns.
The Dallas Cowboys in the offseason made a drastic coaching change when they fired Jason Garrett and hired former Green Bay Packers head coach, Mike McCarthy. McCarthy is well known for his tendency to throw the football more than he wants to run the football as the Packers have consistently finished among the bottom half in the NFL in rushing attempts when McCarthy was the head coach.
This could mean that Zeke is in for his carries to take a dip. Now I believe that Zeke won’t hit 300 carries like he has in almost every season of his career, however McCarthy has never had a running back as good as Ezekiel Elliott and I still believe Zeke will be in for 250+ carries this season even with the tendency to throw the football more from McCarthy.
Zeke also will be the featured back in what projects to be one of the most high powered offenses in the NFL with the likes of Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and CeeDee Lamb forming a deadly trio with quarterback Dak Prescott slinging the ball. What this means is that Zeke could see a slight decrease in his passing volume but Zeke’s touchdown upside may be the highest in the NFL with a great offense who will put up a lot of points. Zeke also will see less defenders in the box which could mean that his yards per carry sees an increase as well.
In conclusion, Zeke figures to see a decrease in his workload but he will still remain effective with being in this potent offense and having little to no competition for snaps in the backfield. Zeke’s current ADP is the 1.03 which I have no problem taking him at that spot but I believe he is one spot below that ADP heading into this season.
5.) Alvin Kamara
Alvin Kamara is my RB5 heading into the 2020 season. Kamara last season had his worst season as a Saint. This mainly was due to playing through knee and ankle injuries throughout the season that limited him to 797 rushing yards, 533 receiving yards on 81 catches for a total of 6 touchdowns. Kamara with having this down year along with missing 2 games still finished as the RB12 with 208 fantasy points.
Kamara heading into this 2020 season is due for a bounce back year with the Saints. The Saints are coming in with the same offense except for adding Emanuel Sanders via free agency and coming in with the same coaching staff. Sanders could steal some of Kamara’s targets from the slot but with Drew Brees getting older and his arm strength not being what it once was, this could mean that Kamara could be in for a lot of targets out of the backfield. Kamara has averaged 6.7 targets per game since he entered the NFL which has consistently been among the most among running backs in the NFL.
Kamara’s only competition for carries and touches is Latavius Murray but Murray only averaged 6.2 carries per game when Kamara was on the field last season which figures to decrease even lower with Kamara being healthy this season and Murray being over 30 years old.
Kamara is one of the more safer options for fantasy heading into this season knowing that there have been no drastic changes to the Saints offense and coaching staff and Kamara will figure to be one of the top PPR running backs once again for fantasy. Kamara’s current ADP is the 1.05 which is exactly where he should be heading into this season.
Brandon's Breakdowns 