By: Brandon Carr
After months of speculation, Cam Newton finally has a new home after spending his first 9 years of his NFL career with the Carolina Panthers. He lands with the New England Patriots. In my opinion, this was the best possible situation for Newton for the simple fact that he has a clear pathway to being the starting QB for the Patriots. He will only have to beat out Jarrett Stidham who is an unproven second-year quarterback that still needs time to develop and journeyman veteran Brian Hoyer.
I could talk about what this signing means from an X’s and O’s standpoint, how he will fit in Josh McDaniels offense, or where the Patriots finish in the 2020 standings but instead, I want to take this to the Fantasy Football world. In this article, I will be taking a look at what this means for Newton’s fantasy outlook and the outlook for some of the Patriots offensive weapons that Newton will have at his disposal.
Cam Newton over his 9-year career has been one of the best QB options for fantasy football every year he has played. Here are Newton’s finishes since he has entered the NFL….
- 2011 (Rookie Season) QB3
- 2012 QB4
- 2013 QB3
- 2014 QB17 (Missed 2 Games)
- 2015 QB1
- 2016 QB17
- 2017 QB2
- 2018 QB12 (Missed 2 Games and dealt with a shoulder injury)
- 2019 (Only Played 2 Games)
So for the most part, Newton has been very good for fantasy in his time in the NFL. The worst finish he had was the QB17 4 years ago, but has had multiple top 5 finishes at the position throughout his career. Now, do I expect Newton to be a top 5 QB this season? No, for the simple fact that there are a lot of great quarterbacks in the NFL who have better situations than what Newton has in New England.
Looking at Newton’s rushing floor, I don’t think we see Newton carry the ball 120 times for 600-700 yards like we have seen him do in years past. Newton isn’t going to want to risk re-injuring himself by taking a lot of hits. However, I also don’t think this means that Newton completely shies away from running the ball. Newton’s legs are what separates him from a lot of quarterbacks in the NFL. Defenses are still going to have to game plan for Newton’s rushing ability because he will wear you down considering how physically gifted he is. At the end of the day, I don’t expect Newton to set career highs in his rushing numbers or carry the ball as much as he usually would with the Patriots, but he will still be effective when he does decide to take off. He will provide a solid rushing floor which is so valuable to quarterbacks in fantasy football.
What people may forget is that in the 2018 season where Newton played the bulk of the Panthers’ games, it was considered by many to be one of Newton’s best passing seasons to date. Newton under offensive coordinator Norv Turner saw a massive spike in his completion percentage. Newton went from the previous 4 seasons of completing under 60% of his passes, all the way to completing 67.9% of his passes. This was more than Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, and Dak Prescott that season. Newton according to PlayerProfiler had the 8th most passes dropped by his wide receivers which means if his receivers made more plays for him, he would’ve been even more efficient of a passer.
Speaking of wide receivers, Newton inherits a Patriots receiving corps that isn’t something to get excited about. If we are talking about dropped passes, the Patriots last season dropped 31 passes which was 7th most in the NFL. Now I believe with Newton starting at QB rather than Stidham or Hoyer, the entire Patriots wide receiver corps are going to get a boost, simply because of better quarterback play with longer drives which means more opportunities.
Julian Edelman no question about it would be the first Patriots offensive skill player I would be drafting in fantasy drafts. Edelman last year was 3rd in the NFL in targets with 154 and was 4th in the NFL in receptions with 100. Now losing Tom Brady does hurt Edelman considering how productive he has been with Brady at the helm because of their great chemistry with each other. However considering Edelman has totaled over 100 targets in the last 3 seasons even with one of those seasons missing 4 games due to suspension, there’s no reason to believe that he wouldn’t be the focal point of the Patriots passing attack. He will receive the most volume out of anyone which would make him the Patriots receiver to own in fantasy.
N’Keal Harry last season dealt with an ankle sprain that caused him to miss the first 9 games of the season and he really couldn’t get going in what was a disappointing rookie campaign. I believe that Harry is a guy that will be looking to prove a lot of people wrong. Harry last season had high expectations considering he was a first-round draft choice and landed with the Patriots. Harry in a lot of rookie drafts in dynasty was the first player off the board which shows how highly he was valued by the fantasy community. Harry was thrown into the fire his rookie season with having the pressure to perform right away as a rookie when he came back from injury. Patriots fans had been clamoring for other players to step up for Tom Brady in the passing game and when Harry came back, a lot of fans expected Harry to do just that. He however didn’t live up to those expectations. Harry will have his opportunity with now Cam Newton quarterbacking the team, to prove the doubters wrong. If you want to talk about how Newton has liked “bigger bodied” receivers, like Devin Funchess and Kelvin Benjamin who were very fantasy relevant during their time spent with Newton then yes you can bring that up if you are a N’Keal Harry 2nd year breakout truther. Newton has shown the ability to have two players on his teams to receive over 100 targets a piece. Duos like Steve Smith and Greg Olsen and Christian McCaffrey and Devin Funchess were able to accomplish this with Newton. Could Julian Edelman and N’Keal Harry both receive 100 targets in this Patriots offense? We will have to see but Harry will be someone to closely monitor this season to see how he progressed this offseason.
I could talk about the Patriots’ tight ends considering that Newton has had a favorite tight end target over his career in Greg Olsen but none of these guys are names where I will expect to be fantasy relevant this year. I do however want to talk about the impact of the Patriots’ running backs. The two names I want to focus on are Sony Michel and James White.
Michel is a guy who I believe either improves or gets worse with Newton coming aboard. If you believe that Michel will have more opportunities for better rushing lanes due to defenses spreading out more to account for a mobile quarterback scrambling to pick up yards, then that is a valid reason to think he will be more efficient this season. If you think that Michel would be worst then then this would be a valid reason why. Since Newton has entered the NFL, he has had 56 red zone rushing touchdowns which are the most out of any QB during that span (2011-2019). Michel has had 12 in his two-year career which is still a good number, but anytime where you have a guy who can be a touchdown vulture for you it isn’t good for your fantasy outlook. Think about Josh Allen, he has been nothing but a touchdown vulture for Bills’ running backs in his career. Allen last season had 9 red zone rushing touchdowns. Bills running back Devin Singletary is a guy who had 66 rushing touchdowns in 3 years at Florida Atlantic and last year only had 2 rushing touchdowns in the red zone. Both of these sides of the argument are in the range of outcomes for Michel, so whatever side you believe, decide if you take him or take another guy being drafted near him.
Now we get to James White. White is a guy who throughout his career had been such a beneficiary for fantasy with Tom Brady under center for the Patriots due to Brady throwing to his running backs at a high rate. We know how good White is as a pass-catcher but the question for his fantasy outlook is, will Cam Newton be looking White’s way like Brady did? Now the assumed answer will be a no, which is correct. However, I don’t think that it is super far off from what we have seen from Brady. Newton according to PFF has had the following percentages throwing to the RB position since 2014….
2018 = 25%
2017 = 26%
2016 = 13%
2015 = 12%
2014 = 12%
You may be wondering why it all of a sudden shot up from 13% to 26% in 2016 to 2017. Well drafting a guy like Christian McCaffrey who is an all-purpose running back who happens to be a great pass-catching running back will warrant him targets. James White’s specialty is catching the football out of the backfield and being a mismatch for linebackers who have to cover him which means he will warrant targets. You have to remember that Newton had guys like Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams who weren’t commanding targets in the passing game because that wasn’t something they were known for being good at. Considering that James White was the second most targeted Patriots player last season with 95 targets, I would expect him to receive a lot of targets again. Even if he receives 70-90 targets next season, that will still make him fantasy relevant, especially in PPR leagues.
Newton is a guy who I think has a lot to prove this year. He is playing on a 1 year $7.5 million contract which isn’t a lot for a former MVP. We have seen Newton working his tail off through his various social media posts. We even recently have seen him work with Patriots wide receiver Mohammed Sanu. Newton wants to prove people wrong and show that he still should be talked about as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. This chip on his shoulder is going to make Newton play at a high level for a team to give him a more lucrative contract after this season. I am very excited to see this Patriots offense this season.
Newton will end up being a guy who goes late in drafts this season which he in my opinion is going to be a nice late-round target at QB. I project Newton to finish somewhere between QB15-QB20 for the 2020 season which would make him a high-end to mid-range QB2 with upside to finish as a QB1.
Brandon's Breakdowns 