By: Brandon Carr
Here we are in July with the NFL season drawing closer and closer and Antonio Brown is still not on an NFL roster. Brown was last seen on the Patriots back in Week 2 of the 2019-2020 NFL season before he was then released after sexual assault allegations. Since then Brown has been linked with a few NFL teams. The following teams have had rumors recently that have linked Brown to them, the Houston Texans, the Seattle Seahawks, the Baltimore Ravens, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers and the Ravens both have denied having any interest in signing Brown meanwhile the Texans and the Seahawks have not denied any reports. For the purposes of this article, let’s say that Brown does have the interest of all of these teams.
Instead of looking at it in terms of what would be best for Brown to be happy, I want to take a look at it in terms of fantasy football. What would happen if Brown signed with these teams? Who would benefit and who wouldn’t? And most importantly, what would this mean for Brown’s fantasy outlook?
Before I dive into the four teams, let’s take a look at Brown’s fantasy finishes since 2013 in half-point PPR formats….
Antonio Brown Fantasy Finishes Since 2013 (HPPR)
- 2013: WR6 (253.9)
- 2014: WR1 (316.4)
- 2015: WR1 (314.2)
- 2016: WR3 (254.3)
- 2017: WR2 (259.8)
- 2018: WR4 (271.7)
Brown’s five top 5 HPPR finishes since 2013 are the most by any WR in the NFL and his 1,669.7 HPPR fantasy points in total, are the most by any WR in the NFL since 2013. Brown also had the second and the third best full PPR finish in a season for a WR since 1995 when he scored 388.2 points in 2015 and 386.9 points in 2014.
Just goes to show how great Brown has been since he emerged. You can make an argument that he has been the best fantasy football WR this past decade. A true elite WR1 option that couldn’t do any wrong and a player that was on plenty of championship-winning rosters.
Brown is currently is still under investigation by the NFL and this could lead to a possible suspension for Brown once the NFL concludes their investigation which is something to keep in mind.
In my opinion, I believe Brown still has it in him to be a great fantasy option. Maybe not a surefire WR1 option but I think the talent is still there for Brown to be very relevant for fantasy. If he is suspended by the NFL, he could still be relevant for the second half of the season which could lead to a similar situation with Kareem Hunt last season. All of this depends on the situation he finds himself in. So with that being said, let’s take a look at these potential landing spots for Brown (I will be grading Brown’s fantasy outlook)…
Houston Texans
The rumors of Brown to the Texans started when former NFL wide receiver and friend of Brown, Chad Johnson tweeted the following….
After this was tweeted, Texans starting quarterback Deshaun Watson tweeted this photo adding more fuel to the fire….
Now, the Texans are a very interesting team for me when it comes to fantasy football. They just traded away their best receiver and considered one of if not the best wide receiver in the NFL in DeAndre Hopkins. To help replace Hopkins’ production, the Texans then traded for former Rams wide receiver Brandin Cooks to fill in that void. Right now the Texans wide receiver corps consist of the following players….
- Brandin Cooks
- Will Fuller
- Kenny Stills
- Randall Cobb
- Keke Coutee
- Isaiah Coulter (Rookie)
The top two receivers on the depth chart Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller have been injury prone up to this point in their careers. Fuller has never played a full season in his career, suffering injuries such as an ACL tear, a core muscle tear, a clavicle fracture, along with many other injuries that has caused him to miss time. As for Cooks, he has been knocked out of many games especially over the past couple of seasons due to mainly concussions.
Considering that you have your two starting outside wide receivers who can’t be trusted to play a full 16 games and with the rest of the receiving corps being average, signing Brown doesn’t seem like a bad option for the Texans. Deshaun Watson is going to need someone that he can trust on this Texans offense and Brown can be just that for Watson. Watson is one of the game’s best quarterbacks and is just entering his prime. DeAndre Hopkins in his three years as Watson’s number one target has averaged 162.3 targets over that span and his lowest number of targets was 150 last season. Brown has never had anything lower than 154 targets in a season since 2013.
I believe out of these four teams, this is the best fantasy landing spot for Brown considering he would have a real shot, in my opinion, to finish as a WR1 this season with the Texans if he did play a full 16 games. Watson would be a huge winner in this scenario because he would be getting a guy who may not exactly be able to replicate what Hopkins has done for him but he in my opinion would be a more than a capable number one option for Watson. In terms of everyone else on the team, this would hurt them considering that Brown would be receiving a lot of targets from Watson, however, if Brown is going to be someone that defenses are going to want to focus on containing, then this could mean that guys like Cooks or Fuller could benefit seeing less attention from defenses. I think that would benefit them for real-life football instead of fantasy but having steady volume is so crucial and the Brown signing would hurt more so for fantasy purposes.
This situation for Brown is just too good in my opinion and this will give him the best chance to insert himself back into fantasy relevance especially if the Texans are dealing with injuries at the position by the time Brown comes back from suspension.
The AB Grade: A
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks have been rumored to be a possible Brown destination for a while now. Russell Wilson has publicly acknowledged how much he would love to throw the ball to Brown and the Seahawks have been rumored to have had previous internal discussions on signing him. We recently saw a video of Brown working out with Wilson at Wilson’s field at his home….
The Seahawks I believe are the most likely team to sign Brown at this point. They haven’t denied their interest in him and the Seahawks last season did sign Josh Gordon who had some baggage attached to his name which shows they wouldn’t be afraid to pull the trigger on Brown when the time is right.
Now for fantasy purposes, this would not be good for guys like Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. Brown figures to work on the outside which I believe could more so affect Metcalf than Lockett considering Lockett spent most of his time in the slot last season. Lockett 60.1% of the time when lined up, was in the slot rather than the outside. Brown figures to be on the outside if he were to sign with the Seahawks so Lockett’s role as the slot receiver figures to remain the same but with fewer targets.
As for Metcalf, he just was able to hit the 100 target threshold his rookie season, if Brown comes aboard, that target number I see taking a huge hit on a week to week basis. Metcalf’s catch rate was below 60% which means he’s not making the most out of his opportunities when the ball is being thrown his way. If there is not high volume for a guy like that, then this would make him a boom or bust type of player every week. Metcalf would end up being third in the pecking order and his fantasy value would take a huge hit. Metcalf would still be a good option in best-ball leagues but regular leagues, I would be trying to trade him before Brown comes into the fold.
I don’t think that this is the worst situation for Brown considering that his quarterback is one of the best in football but considering there are two guys on the team who both had at least 100 targets last season in a Pete Carroll offense that has historically more so leaned towards the running game, Brown may not be a guy who’s going to be a league winner in that scenario. But this is still a solid spot for his fantasy outlook in my opinion.
The AB Grade: B
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens were a team that was rumored to have had an interest in signing Brown like the Seahawks and that they had internal discussions about the possibility. However, ESPN’s Josnia Anderson had reported that the Ravens were not being considered as a “future potential destination” for Brown. However, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson had stated that he would be happy if the Ravens signed Brown previously. It makes sense why there’s rumors considering we have seen that Brown had been working out with Jackson and Ravens WR Hollywood Brown who happens to be cousins with Brown….
I’m sure that Brown would love to sign with Baltimore to play alongside his cousin and the MVP of the NFL in Jackson. The Ravens also happen to be in the same division as the Pittsburgh Steelers where Brown spent the first 9 years of his NFL career at.
For fantasy football, I wouldn’t like this move so much really for anyone except Jackson. The Ravens threw the ball the least amount of times in the NFL with Jackson only throwing it 401 times all season long. Now, this number figures to see an increase considering you don’t see a team running the ball almost 600 times in a season and rushing for an NFL record 3,296 yards as a team very often, but the Ravens are still going to be throwing the ball at one of the lowest rates in the NFL as long as Jackson is the quarterback of the team.
Mark Andrews led the Ravens in targets with 98 on the season and he did this while only playing on 43.2% of the Ravens offensive snaps. Brown coming along I don’t think would really hurt Andrews considering that the Ravens love using their tight ends. 3 of the 5 most targeted Ravens last season were tight ends and the tight end landscape right now for fantasy is so poor that Andrews would still be a TE1 with no problem. The targets on a week to week basis could see a slight downgrade but that is about it.
Hollywood Brown out of everyone in my opinion would take a huge hit in his volume. Hollywood would be in a similar situation as D.K. Metcalf where he would receive lower volume and be the third option on the team with Brown on the field. Hollywood just like Metcalf, would be a guy that is a boom or bust play for the season. I do however think Brown could benefit in terms of real-life football with his development by seeing less attention from the defense.
This landing spot for Brown isn’t the most ideal situation for me for fantasy purposes. I think that he wouldn’t be seeing a high amount of targets that he should be receiving. But he would end up being the number one WR option for Jackson when he returns from suspension. For real-life football, I would love this spot for Brown, but for fantasy I don’t love it so much.
The AB Grade: C
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last but not least we have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This organization has been linked to Brown ever since they signed Tom Brady this offseason. Every time that the Bucs have been brought up as a landing spot for Brown, there has been a source that has denied that the Bucs have any interest in Brown’s services. Most recently by Rick Stroud who is a reporter for the Tampa Bay Times. We also know about the relationship between Brown and Brady with it being reported that Brady has been keeping in touch with Brown since the Patriots released him last season and Brown has publicly stated before that he only wants to play with Brady if he returns to the NFL.
In real-life football, I would love to see Brady throwing the ball to Brown, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Rob Gronkowski, but for fantasy, this would be very hard to project who would be getting the ball in this offense.
When you have all of these weapons to throw the ball to, it would be very hard to keep everyone involved. Brady obviously is the biggest beneficiary but every other player in this offense is taking a hit.
Chris Godwin had 121 targets and Mike Evans had 118 targets last season even with both missing the last few games of the season. It is extremely rare for 3 WRs to have over 100 targets on the same team. Most recently, you would have to look at the 2013 Denver Broncos who had Demaryius Thomas with 142 targets, Eric Decker with 136 targets, and Wes Welker with 111 targets accomplish this feat. Thomas finished as the WR1, Decker finished as the WR9, and Welker finished as the WR20 in HPPR formats that season.
Considering how rare this is and we don’t know if we can expect Brady to throw 40-50 touchdowns this season, I don’t believe that this Bucs team would be able to do what that Broncos team did. The Bucs last season threw the ball the 4th most times in the NFL with 630 attempts, the Broncos that season threw the ball the 2nd most times in the NFL with 675 attempts. It would be an extremely tall task for the Bucs to accomplish.
Everyone on the Bucs would be seeing one on one coverage every single play which would be impossible for NFL offenses to stop. However it would be too hard to project on where everyone would finish and considering how rare it is for something like what the Broncos did to happen. Considering Brown most likely is getting suspended would mean Godwin and Evans would be fine to start the season but when Brown comes back and if he’s on the Bucs, it’s going to throw a wrench for the rest of the season. I think depending on the week Evans could be the most targeted or Godwin or Brown there won’t be any consistency there and you will have a lot of boom or bust weeks from all of these guys. So overall, I don’t love this for Brown’s fantasy outlook with the amount of mouths to feed on the offense.
The AB Grade: D+
I do hope that Brown eventually gets his opportunity to play in the NFL again. I may not agree with the actions he has taken over the past year, but a guy who is this talented should not be a free agent. Brown was a guy who won me my first fantasy football league back in 2015, so I have a soft spot for him. I would hate to see his career go to waste for some questionable decisions he has made but nonetheless, we will have to wait and see if Brown gets his chance to play again in the NFL.
Brandon's Breakdowns 