By: Brandon Carr
A lot of rookies in the NFL this season have impressed. Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert look like franchise quarterbacks. Wide receivers like CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Jerry Jeudy, Tee Higgins, and Chase Claypool have all flashed in their own right. Running backs Clyde-Edwards Helaire and undrafted rookie James Robinson are both top 6 in the NFL in rushing yards. There is one rookie however who has received a lot of buzz, but for the wrong reasons.
This rookie is Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor. Taylor is one of the most successful college running backs we have seen in a long time. Taylor in 3 seasons playing for the Wisconsin Badgers had maybe the most dominant 3 year stretch in NCAA history for a running back. Taylor ran for the 6th most rushing yards in NCAA history with a total of 6,174 yards and had 55 total touchdowns. Taylor was a 2-time consensus all-American and won the Doak Walker award twice which is being recognized as the best running back in college football that season.
Taylor after entering the NFL draft was invited to participate in the NFL combine. Taylor at the combine was measured as being 5’10 and weighing 226 pounds which equates to workhorse/bell-cow running back size at the NFL level. Along with that size, he demonstrated his speed. Taylor at the combine ran a 4.39 40 which was the fastest out of any running back at the combine despite his size. He’s a freak athlete, you don’t see that combination of size and speed very often. PlayerProfiler’s comparison to Taylor is Ezekiel Elliott who Taylor is bigger and faster than which says a lot.
With his measurements, college production, and athleticism, it seems like you’re looking at a can’t miss prospect at the position. Some have even tabbed Jonathan Taylor as a “generational” prospect with all of this getting taken into consideration. Taylor was the 3rd running back off the board and drafted by the Colts in the 2nd round of the NFL draft.
Taylor by all accounts had a great training camp according to Colts media that were in attendance. Many had pointed out his power and speed being shown off on numerous occasions throughout camp.
Frank Reich, despite Taylor flashing during training camp, still wanted this to be a committee backfield. Calling him and Marlon Mack a “1-1 punch” with Nyheim Hines being the third-down/satellite back. Many believed like me, that Taylor was going to be a league-winning type of player this season which is why Taylor was being drafted in the 3rd and 4th rounds of fantasy drafts. I for one believed that he was going to take Marlon Mack’s job at some point in the season because he was the better talent. But Taylor didn’t even need to do that to get the job.
Mack in week 1 against the Jaguars, suffered a season-ending Achilles injury. This was an unfortunate way for Taylor to become the Colts starter, but anyone that invested in him felt that this was the time for Taylor to breakthrough. He had a 100-yard rushing game against the Vikings the next game and many thought that this was going to be a common theme. Taylor handled 26 carries in that game and while it may have not been an easy path to 100 yards (3.8 YPC), he still was the bell cow handling a majority of the Colts carries. You thought with a dominant Colts defense, a great offensive line, and Taylor being the best talent at the position by far on the roster, that you just got a steal in the draft with a guy who was getting RB1 volume in that game. However, that’s when things began going downhill.
Taylor since that game has not hit over 70 yards on the ground and has not hit over 20 carries in a game. But why is this the case? There’s a lot of different reasons but one that sticks out to me that I find to be pretty concerning is his sudden inconsistency with his vision. Taylor at the college level I thought possessed great vision. There weren’t many times where I thought Taylor missed holes while watching his tape. Watch this run right here.
Unbelievable patience and vision to let the holes come to him and attack them with power the way he does on that play. Here is one more run showing that vision being put to display.
Exceptional vision on that play as well. But this hasn’t been the case so far at the NFL level. Here is the one play I have seen on Twitter that has gotten a lot of people talking.
This one is bad, he has a wide-open hole to the left side but he instead chooses to just run straight up the middle into a cluster.
It’s extremely odd, to say the least. This wasn’t a problem for him in college. His only knock was his that he had a tendency to fumble the ball which he has only done once this season so that hasn’t been an issue. There are more instances of Taylor being slow to read his blocks and it’s pretty concerning but I think looking deeper into it, it’s not all Jonathan Taylor’s fault. The Colts offensive line this season has been very underwhelming. They were Football Outsiders’ 12th ranked run-blocking offensive line last season and now this season, they currently are ranked 25th. Taylor has been nursing a minor ankle injury that could be hampering him slightly, the Colts have had a multitude of different ways of scoring touchdowns from inside the five that has limited his touchdown upside, and he is also seeing the 3rd most average defenders in the box according to PlayerProfiler with 7.3. But all in all, this has been a very disappointing season for someone a lot of people were very high on with everything seemingly in his favor to be successful. Taylor’s last three games especially have been disappointing, 61 rushing yards and 24 carries total with snap counts of 26, 21, and most recently 17. Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines have been out touching and out producing Taylor during this three-game stretch who aren’t on the same level of talent as Taylor.
If there is any bright spot to take away from Taylor’s season, it’s that he has been one of the more efficient pass-catching running backs this season. On 20 receptions he is averaging 8.9 yards per reception which is 4th among running backs and has a 90.9% catch rate which is 3rd among running backs (Player Profiler). Pass catching is something Wisconsin didn’t give him a chance to demonstrate very often but he’s shown he can be an every down back in NFL by excelling at this.
I think if I owned him in redraft, his value isn’t high right now so I would hold on because he has the Texans twice, the Packers, Raiders, and Titans in his remaining schedule who are all relatively friendly running back matchups where Taylor could breakthrough but I wouldn’t be opposed to moving him to try and upgrade if you can. In dynasty, I would hold on. I think before you anoint him a “bust,” I think you have to give him another season to see if there is any improvement. I think he’s a great buy-low candidate if the Taylor owner is tilting right now.
I think Taylor can turn things around because he has the talent, it’s just a matter of will he be able to read his blocks better and if the Colts offensive line can help him out more. I think the game could be just hitting Taylor too fast which makes sense because some guys take longer to adapt to the next level especially the system he was in at Wisconsin, it was easier for him to be successful than it is now for him. He has had a couple plays where he’s flashed but I think time will tell. Don’t give up yet!
Brandon's Breakdowns 