By: Brandon Carr
Super Bowl LIV is finally upon us. The biggest football game of the year will feature two of the best teams in the NFL. The San Francisco 49ers will be playing against the Kansas City Chiefs. The game will take place in Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida. Who will come up on top in the biggest game of the NFL season and take home the Lombardi trophy for their fans?….
KEYS TO THE GAME:
Can the 49ers defense stop Patrick Mahomes?
Patrick Mahomes has been nearly unstoppable this postseason. Mahomes has thrown for 615 yards, 8 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in his 2 postseason games this season. No matter what the defense has done, Mahomes has been able to pick them apart. What has made Mahomes even more of a threat is that he has become more of a runner with the football. Mahomes has ran for 53 yards in both of his postseason games which is something he normally doesn’t do as often. 49ers all pro cornerback Richard Sherman had this to say about Mahomes and the Chiefs offense, “I wouldn’t expect him to shy away from anything,” Sherman told NFL Network’s Deion Sanders at Super Bowl LIV Opening Night. “They’ve got some of the most dynamic playmakers in this league, they got a ton of speed. He’s got a ton of arm talent. He can get the ball wherever he wants it, when he wants it. He can move around the pocket. We got to find a way to get that solved. They have a great offense and obviously a ton of playmakers. That’s why they’re here, that’s why they made it to the show.” (NFL.com). Mahomes has a tough task ahead of him with this 49ers defense. The 49ers defense has been among the best defenses in the NFL this season. What they excel with the most is getting after the quarterback. They are number one in the NFL in quarterback hurries per drop back and number two in quarterback pressure per drop back (Pro-Football Reference). The 49ers defense in the postseason has been the healthiest they have been all season long and in their two post-season games, they have been pressuring the quarterback with 9 total sacks in 2 games and have forced 5 turnovers in that span as well. They have made a living this season of making the lives of opposing quarterbacks a living hell with that pass rush. Guys like Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Deforest Buckner, and Dee Ford have led the way for this unit.
This is a battle between two heavyweights. If the 49ers want to stop Pat Mahomes they are going to have to do everything they can from preventing him from rolling out of the pocket. I don’t doubt they get pressure on him, but Mahomes is most deadly when he is outside of the pocket which can spell trouble for the 49ers defense. The secondary for the 49ers which was first in the NFL this season in terms of passing yards allowed per game, needs to do whatever they can to cover these playmakers that the Chiefs have on offense and hope that their dominant pass rush can prevent Mahomes from extending the play with his legs.
Can The Chiefs Stop The 49ers Run Game?
The San Francisco 49ers have not only dominated teams with their defense, but they have one of the best running games in the NFL. The 49ers rank second in the NFL in rushing yards per game (144.1 YPG). The way head coach Kyle Shanahan’s system works benefits running backs immensely. The three headed monster that the 49ers have consists of, Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, and Matt Breida. These backs all have skill sets that fit right in with Kyle Shanahan’s system. There is also one more guy in this backfield who is the engine that gets their running game going. A lot of the success stems from fullback Kyle Juszczyk. He is widely regarded as the best full back in football as the blocking that he provides creates gaping holes for these backs to succeed. Along with George Kittle who has improved his blocking this season to become one of the best blocking tight ends in the NFL. Just last week Raheem Mostert ran for 220 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Packers. Having the ability to rotate three great backs into the game and have a fullback and receivers who can block, it makes it really tough to stop.
The Kansas City Chiefs rush defense hasn’t been amongst the best in the NFL this season with them being ranked 26th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (128.2 YPG). Although this number isn’t ideal for the Chiefs, in the AFC championship game, the Chiefs defense stepped up big time against the Tennessee Titans who were third in the NFL in rushing yards per game (138.9 YPG). The Chiefs held Derrick Henry, who was on a three game streak of rushing for 180+ yards, to only 69 yards rushing. After the game, Chiefs defensive end Frank Clark had this to say about stopping Derrick Henry, “Cause we’re the best defense in the world right now,” Clark told NFL Network’s James Palmer. “They come in here, they say they’re gonna run the ball. I know exactly what they were gonna do, you watching that film, you know what they’re going to do … Over 200 yards each game. I knew damn well we weren’t going to win the game if we let that happen. They come in here, he runs for 70 yards, they call him the best rusher in the league. We sending’ his a– home early.” (NFL.com). A big reason of why this was the case was because of the return of defensive tackle Chris Jones who may have played on a snap count, made an immediate impact to their rush defense.The confidence is high in that group and they will have to execute a similar game plan to stop this 49ers running game.
Although Tevin Coleman is dealing with a shoulder injury he suffered in the NFC championship game against Green Bay, the 49ers have the personnel to make up for Coleman’s injury. Raheem Mostert proved that. The Chiefs played their best game in terms of stopping the run all season and their defense is healthy. But I believe that the 49ers have been too consistent with their rushing attack to be shut down. The only chance I give the Chiefs is if Mahomes and their offense put up a lot of points and the 49ers have to throw the football more to keep up with their offense.
Jimmy Garoppolo: Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t necessarily had to do too much this postseason to get to the Super Bowl. In his two post season games, Jimmy G has completed 17 out of 27 passes for 206 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Jimmy G has been just a game manager in those two games. However, he hasn’t faced another opposing offense as explosive as the Chiefs offense has been this season. The Chiefs and their offense have scored 86 points in their two post season games. Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid had this to say about Jimmy G, “Kyle does a great job with his blend of runs,” Reid said Tuesday at Miami’s J.W. Marriott Turnberry hotel. “That said, I wouldn’t slight Jimmy. Jimmy can throw the ball well when needed. If you look at his percentages and passer rating over the last few years, it’s up there in every situation. As well as they run the football and as well as they make you honor every gap and zone on the field, you can’t slight the pass game. Our defense is working hard on that, trying to make it right.” (NBCSports.com). Jimmy G is going to have to do more than what he has been doing in this playoff run. You can’t throw 8 passes and expect to keep up with the Chiefs. Jimmy G certainly has the weapons to keep up with Kansas City with George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Emmanuel Sanders to throw the football to. The Chiefs secondary has also been very good this season. They rank 8th in passing yards allowed per game (221.4 YPG). Jimmy G has the capability of scoring points with the weapons he has in the passing game, but it still will be a tall task to go blow for blow with Pat Mahomes’ offense.
CONCLUSION
This game has the potential to be one of the best Super Bowl games we have had in a long time. These two teams are both very well coached and both have great personnel. I believe that this will come down to what team has the ball last. It will be a high scoring affair, I don’t believe the 49ers will be able to stop Mahomes and I don’t believe the Chiefs will limit this 49ers running game. Although that could spell disaster for the Chiefs since Mahomes could be kept on the sidelines the entire game, I think Mahomes is too good and he will drop as many points as it takes for his team to win their second Lombardi trophy in franchise history. I like the Chiefs in a shootout and get a narrow win against the 49ers.
Prediction: 38-35 Chiefs.
Super Bowl MVP Prediction: Patrick Mahomes
References:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com
https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/why-andy-reid-wont-overlook-49ers-passing-game-super-bowl-54
Brandon's Breakdowns 