By: Brandon Carr
6.) Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry comes into the 2020 season as my running back six. Henry is coming off of his best season as a pro. Last season, Henry carried the ball 303 times (1st) ran for 1,540 yards (1st) with 16 rushing touchdowns (1st). This led to Henry finishing the season as the RB3 when he totaled 285.6 fantasy points in half PPR formats.
Positives
Derrick Henry is 2020 is primed to once again receive a lot of carries. The Tennessee Titans have a clear motive to run the football with Henry. The Titans finished this past season 10th in the NFL in rushing attempts with the guy who led the league in carries. There isn’t much competition for carries in the Titans offense and they may have brought in Darrynton Evans who was a 3rd round pick, but he doesn’t figure to take carries away from Henry and will be more of a change of pace back. It is guaranteed that Henry is going to be amongst the top in the NFL in rushing yards once again with a high touchdown total on the ground which makes him a relatively safe fantasy option heading into the 2020 season.
Negatives
One of the biggest negatives for Henry’s fantasy outlook is the volume in the passing game. Henry’s floor can be somewhat limited if he doesn’t catch passes. Henry’s career-high in receptions is 18. That is not a lot and it has capped Henry’s potential to insert himself in the elite RB1 conversation. Austin Ekeler finished ahead of Henry in full PPR formats in fantasy because Ekeler catches passes and Henry doesn’t. That is how much passing volume means in fantasy football when you are playing in half or full PPR leagues.
Overall
Derrick Henry overall I believe is still a safe fantasy option. You know what you are getting with Henry because you know that his lack of receptions may cap his ceiling and his floor but the floor for Henry’s fantasy outlook for the 2020 season is still safe because you know that he will be amongst the top of the league in rushing yards and he will get close to 300 carries once again. The Titans want their offense to run through Henry and I feel that an RB6 finish for Henry on the season is right where we should expect him to finish. Henry’s current ADP in half PPR formats is the 2.03 in 12 team formats.
7.) Joe Mixon
Joe Mixon is my running back seven heading into the 2020 season. Mixon is coming off of another productive season with the Bengals. Mixon last season totaled 1,137 rushing yards on 278 carries for 5 rushing touchdowns. Mixon finished as the RB13 on the season with a total of 207.9 fantasy points.
Positives
Joe Mixon’s numbers may not be eye-opening but if you think about it, Mixon was playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Per Football Outsiders, the Cincinnati Bengals ranked as the 26th best offensive line in the NFL in terms of run blocking. Mixon had 6 games this season where he finished with over 100 total yards from scrimmage even with bad quarterback play, a game script that doesn’t benefit him, and behind that offensive line. It shows you how talented Mixon is. The Bengals offense this season should be a lot better than what it was last season. Joe Burrow will make the offense better for the Bengals and the Bengals will get a boost to their offensive line with Jonah Williams coming back to the offense who was the Bengals first-round pick last year who missed the entire 2019 season due to injury.
Negatives
Joe Mixon in coming into the NFL was seen to be a much more effective pass catcher and a lot of people have been waiting for him to have that breakout season where he catches a lot of passes. However, that still has not happened yet. Mixon’s career-high in receptions is 43 and last season he only finished with 35 receptions. Giovani Bernard is still on the Bengals and he has seen just about the same amount of passing work as Mixon. He is part of the reason why Mixon’s floor is somewhat limited without that pass-catching volume to keep his floor stable. There also have been rumors that Joe Mixon is a likely holdout candidate if he doesn’t receive a contract extension this offseason, keep an eye out on that storyline.
Overall
Joe Mixon I believe will have the best season of his career in 2020. The Bengals offense should be much improved which means that Mixon will have a better opportunity to score more touchdowns and be a little more efficient than he has been throughout his career. I like Mixon for the 2020 season and I am confident enough to slot him in as my RB7. Mixon is a fantastic late first early second round add for your team and I have no problem taking him as your RB1. Mixon’s current ADP is the 1.10 in half PPR formats.
8.) Miles Sanders
Miles Sanders is my running back eight on the season. Sanders, who is coming off of his rookie season in the NFL, was very productive. Last season, Sanders carried the ball 179 times for 818 yards, caught 50 balls on 63 targets for 509 yards, with a combined 6 touchdowns. Sanders finished the season as the RB15 with 193.7 fantasy points.
Positives
Miles Sanders broke out when Jordan Howard last season got injured. Sanders from week 11 on was the RB7 with 106.6 of his 193.7 fantasy being accumulated during that time period. This led to Sanders finishing as the RB1 out of all rookie running backs from last year’s class including Josh Jacobs. Now Jordan Howard is gone and off to the Miami Dolphins so Sanders will have his opportunity to build off of his dominant stretch in a Carson Wentz led offense and an Eagles offense as a whole that should be much healthier heading into the 2020 season.
Negatives
The biggest negative for Miles Sanders’ 2020 outlook is Doug Pederson. Pederson is well known for his desire to run an RBBC (running back by committee) offense. Miles Sanders has had the most carries out of any running back in a Doug Pederson coached team which is saying a lot. Now could Pederson change his philosophy and see that Sanders is more than capable of being a workhorse running back? He could. The Eagles have not signed or drafted a running back that could compete with Sanders for touches. Will Boston Scott get touches in this Eagles offense? He will, but that doesn’t stop Sanders from being the lead dog in the backfield. Carlos Hyde is a name that I have been seeing linked to the Eagles as a possible signing which is something that needs to be closely monitored. Hyde had a 1000+ yard rushing season with Houston last year which is worrisome for Sanders’ outlook if he is signed. If Hyde is signed, Sanders is more of an RB2 heading into this season.
Overall
The Eagles so far have not done anything to risk Sanders’ 2020 outlook and I am very high on Sanders as a player and for this season. Sanders in year 2 will finish in my opinion as an RB1 and he will be a great value pick up in the second round of drafts this season. Sanders’ current ADP in half PPR formats is the 2.10 so later in the second round.
9.) Kenyan Drake
Kenyan Drake heading into the 2020 NFL season is my running back nine. Drake in the 2020 season finished with 170 carries for 817 rushing yards with 8 touchdowns along with 50 receptions on 68 targets for 345 receiving yards. Drake with these numbers finished the season as the RB16 when he finished with 189.2 fantasy points.
Positives
Kenyan Drake coming into the 2019 season was a part of the Miami Dolphins and it seemed clear that he needed a change of scenery. The Cardinals were willing to trade for Drake as they traded for him and have not looked back since then. Drake in the 8 games that he played with the Cardinals saw a major uptick in yards per carry from 3.7 to 5.2 yards per carry and saw total yards from scrimmage per game increase from 58 yards per game to 101.4 yards per game. Drake also in these games was the RB4 for the rest of the season. Drake clearly is in a way better situation with the Cardinals than with the Dolphins. If Drake played the entire season with the Cardinals, he would have been on pace to have 246 carries for 1,286 rushing yards with 16 touchdowns on the ground with 56 catches for 342 yards receiving.
Negatives
Drake hasn’t had a great NFL career up to this point which is something to take note of. But he also has been with Adam Gase for most of his career so that doesn’t help. Drake hasn’t hit the 60 reception mark in any season he has played. His reception numbers took a slight hit when he got to the Cardinals when his receiving yards per game dropped from 29 to 21.4 yards and his targets per game went from 5.5 to 4.4. It isn’t a huge difference but still something to take note of. Chase Edmonds is someone I don’t worry about either because in the games he played in with Drake starting, he only had 2 total carries in the games he was healthy for. Drake will be the workhorse in this Kliff Kingsbury offense.
Overall
I like Kenyan Drake this season. There are not a lot of potential negatives attached to Kenyan Drake heading into the 2020 season and I feel confident having him as an RB1 this season in any format. Drake you can draft for a really good discount as his current ADP in half PPR leagues is the 3.08. That is an absolute steal! Draft Drake and expect him to be great for fantasy this season.
10.) Nick Chubb
Nick Chubb for the 2020 season is my running back ten. Chubb this past season carried the ball 298 times for 1494 rushing yards with 8 rushing touchdowns. Chubb finished the season as the RB7 with 237.2 fantasy points.
Positives
Nick Chubb is in that category where you know what you can expect from him. He is a guy who is going to get a lot of carries and he is going to rush for a whole lot of yards. The Cleveland Browns have a brand new head coach in Kevin Stefanski who will help the Browns become more of a ground and pound football team. Stefanski was the offensive coordinator last season with the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings last year were fourth in the NFL in rushing attempts compared to the Browns who were 22nd in the NFL in rushing attempts. The Browns offensive line also will get a boost with tackle Jack Conklin coming over from the Titans in free agency and the Browns drafting Alabama tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. 10th overall in the NFL draft.
Negatives
There is one problem that is keeping me from putting Chubb a lot higher. Kareem Hunt is still on the Browns and he figures to be part of this Browns offense. Chubb’s offensive snap percentage did go down when Hunt returned to the Browns lineup. Chubb went from seeing 76% of the snaps without Hunt in the lineup to 64% of the snaps with Hunt in the lineup. Hunt will be more so used as a 3rd down back for the Browns which means that Chubb’s passing work will take a hit, which he never got a lot of anyways in that category. Chubb’s floor is not as high as one would like, however, he brings that consistency in the running game that keeps him very relevant in fantasy, even if Hunt takes a few of those carries away from Chubb.
Overall
Nick Chubb despite Kareem Hunt taking away some of Chubb’s potential will still be a great fantasy running back in 2020. He is a guy who will see a lot of opportunities with an even better offense and a better system that will make Chubb shine once again for fantasy football. Chubb’s current ADP is the 2.02 which is exactly where he should be drafted.
References:
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/offensive-line/2019
Brandon's Breakdowns 