By: Brandon Carr
6.) Chris Godwin
Chris Godwin is coming off of a huge breakout season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this past season. Godwin finished the season with catching 86 balls on 121 targets for 1,333 yards and 9 touchdowns. In half PPR formats, Godwin finished as the WR2 on the season with a total of 233.1 fantasy points in 14 games played.
Positives
Chris Godwin and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had a wild offseason with the biggest acquisition being a future hall of famer and who is widely considered as the greatest quarterback in the history of the NFL, Tom Brady. What this means for Godwin’s fantasy outlook is that he will once again be catching a lot of passes. Godwin this past season according to PlayerProfiler lined up in the slot for 50.5% of his snaps during the season and Tom Brady has been notorious throughout his career of always having that slot guy he targets heavily. Whether that was Wes Welker or Julian Edelman, Brady has fallen in love with his slot receiver and Godwin should be no different. Godwin was on pace before he got injured, to finish the season with 98 receptions for 1,523 yards and 10 touchdowns according to Pro Football Reference. Godwin would have been close to hitting the triple crown for a wide receiver. Godwin would have been even closer to becoming the WR1 on the season.
Negatives
Godwin has a couple of concerns for me. I worry about a shortened offseason and the potential of no training camp that he won’t be able to establish strong chemistry with Tom Brady. However, Brady was recently seen throwing to Mike Evans, O.J. Howard, and Cameron Brate so even though there might not exactly be a training camp, players are still finding ways to get their reps in with each other and I am sure that Godwin will be joining those guys at some point as well. Godwin is on an offense that has a lot of mouths to feed with Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, O.J. Howard, and Cameron Brate. Godwin I believe has a strong chance to finish with the most targets on the team with Tom Brady at quarterback considering of how Godwin’s skill set compliments Brady’s tendencies.
Overall
Chris Godwin I believe will have another strong WR1 season for fantasy owners even with a change at quarterback. Brady I believe will target Godwin the most in this Buccaneers offense and he will have a great season with Brady at the helm. Godwin’s current ADP is the 2.03 in half PPR formats.
7.) Kenny Golladay
Kenny Golladay is coming off arguably the best season of his career in the NFL. Golladay this past season finished with 65 receptions on 116 targets for 1,190 yards and 11 touchdowns which was first in the NFL. Golladay’s season landed him as the WR6 on the season in half PPR leagues with 215.5 fantasy points.
Positives
Kenny Golladay quietly was a top 6 WR in fantasy last season even with Matthew Stafford missing the second half of the season due to a back injury. Golladay was able to produce with both Stafford and David Blough this past season as Golladay in the games Stafford played, was the WR10 and in the games he didn’t, he was the WR9. Now with Stafford hopefully playing healthy this season, he will be able to see a lot more deep targets. According to PlayerProfiler, Stafford finished with 55 total deep ball targets this season in the 8 games he played. If he had played all 16 games, he would have been on pace to finish with 110 deep ball targets which would have finished 2nd in the NFL. Golladay may have even had a chance to finish first in the NFL in total target distance because he still finished 4th in that category even with Stafford missing half the games.
Negatives
Kenny Golladay’s biggest flaw in his game is that he doesn’t catch a lot of passes which doesn’t make him an elite PPR league option with the lack of reception volume. This, therefore, would make him a better standard league option but this doesn’t destroy his value by any means. Golladay still finished as the WR6 even with ranking 29th in the NFL in receptions amongst wide receivers.
Overall
Kenny Golladay is a really good fantasy option heading into the 2020 season. He led the NFL in touchdown receptions which is how high his ceiling can be and I expect him to be one of the favorites to lead the league in touchdown receptions again. If Matthew Stafford can remain healthy throughout the season, Golladay will again make for a great WR1 option for your fantasy team. Golladay’s current ADP in half PPR formats is the 2.09.
8.) Mike Evans
Mike Evans is coming off of another great season. Evans this past season finished with 67 receptions on 118 targets for 1,157 yards and 8 touchdown receptions in 13 games played. Evans finished the season as the WR12 in half PPR formats with 199.2 fantasy points.
Positives
Mike Evans consistently throughout his career has been a 1,000-yard receiver. Evans has hit that mark in every single season of his 6-year career in the NFL. He has done it with Jameis Winston to Ryan Fitzpatrick to Mike Glennon to Josh McCown. Now he has the opportunity to do it with Tom Brady. Brady hasn’t had a wide receiver of Evans’ down the field talent since Randy Moss and we know what they were able to do together. Brady will have an opportunity to still show that he can throw the ball down the field to Evans in the Buccaneers offense. Evans was a receiver with Jameis Winston last year who commanded a lot of deep ball targets as Evans finished 2nd in the NFL in total target distance with 1,875 total yards and he also finished 4th in the NFL in average target distance with 15.9 yards per target (PlayerProfiler).
Negatives
A lot of the same negatives with Mike Evans are very similar to the negatives of Chris Godwin since they both are in almost the same exact situation. However, with Mike Evans, there is one thing that I am concerned about that I am not with Chris Godwin. The big question is, how many deep ball targets will Tom Brady take in this offense? Although Tom Brady is considered an upgrade over Jameis Winston, Winston did fantasy wonders with his wide receivers in Tampa Bay. Winston according to PlayerProfiler was 1st in the NFL in deep ball attempts (113) and 1st in pass attempt distance (6,597 yards). Tom Brady in these same categories was ranked much lower than Winston. Brady finished with 60 deep ball attempts which was 15th in the NFL and 4634.5 yards in pass attempt distance which was 10th in the NFL. You can definitely point to the weapons Brady had and in the offense he was in with New England which is a reason why of these lower numbers. I don’t believe Tom Brady will hit these numbers that Winston had because Winston is more of a risk-taker and Brady is more less of a risk-taker. Brady will improve in these categories but he won’t match Winston or pass him with those statistics. Evans still will receive a high amount of targets and deep ball targets from Brady. I could see Evans’ yards per catch take a slight hit but he still is a lock for 1000+ yards receiving and he is too talented to not be a WR1 option for fantasy.
Overall
Mike Evans is a great fantasy option heading into the 2020 season. He has a very safe floor of 1000+ yards receiving and he is one of the best overall receivers in the NFL. Evans on the season will finish as a middle to low end WR1 for fantasy in 2020 and he will again be a great option for fantasy teams. Evans’ current ADP is the 2.08 in half PPR leagues.
9.) Amari Cooper
Amari Cooper is coming off of his first full season as a Dallas Cowboy. This led to Cooper having the best statistical season of his career this past season when he caught 79 passes on 119 targets for 1,189 yards and 8 touchdowns. Cooper finished the season as the WR9 on the season with 207 fantasy points in half PPR formats.
Positives
Amari Cooper entering the 2020 season is the number one receiver in an offense that is going to be one of the best in the NFL and one that is going to be throwing the ball quite a bit. Dak Prescott this past season was 6th in the NFL in passing attempts with 596 passing attempts and second in the NFL in passing yards with 4,902 passing yards. Cooper and the Cowboys come into this season with a brand new head coach in Mike McCarthy who’s coaching philosophy for his offense is to lean more towards a dose of passing style of offense, which only means good things for Cooper and the rest of the Cowboys wide receivers.
Negatives
Amari Cooper is a well known to be a big boom or bust player. Cooper according to PlayerProfiler had a weekly volatility rate of 11.1 which was 6th in the NFL. This stat means that if you have a high volatility rate, then that means you are very inconsistent with your performances. Cooper had 8 games where he finished as a WR1 (1-12) or WR2 (12-24) on the week. Cooper also had 7 games where he didn’t finish as a WR1 or WR2 excluding the Jets game when he left early due to injury. A valid excuse for Cooper is that he was dealing with a lot of injuries this past season. He dealt with a knee sprain, quadriceps sprain, and an ankle sprain throughout the 2019 season. But this inconsistency has always been something that Cooper has dealt with in his career ever since he entered the league. The Cowboys also drafted CeeDee Lamb who many people had as their top wide receiver prospect heading into the 2020 draft. Lamb will take targets away from both Cooper and Michael Gallup but considering the Cowboys will be a heavy passing offense, all three of those guys are going to eat this year and Cooper will still finish with over 100 targets on the season.
Overall
Amari Cooper and the Cowboys offense will be very fun to watch and will be great for fantasy football. Cooper I believe will finish as a low-end WR1 this season and again will bring his high ceiling every week this season. Cooper’s current ADP is the 2.12 in half PPR formats.
10.) Calvin Ridley
Calvin Ridley is coming off of another productive season. Ridley this past season caught 63 balls on 93 targets for 866 yards and 7 touchdowns in 13 games. Ridley finished the season as the WR25 when he posted 165.5 fantasy points.
Positives
Calvin Ridley before he got injured was well on his way to hitting 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in his young career. Ridley’s 16 game pace according to Pro Football Reference would have had him finishing with 78 receptions on 114 targets for 1,066 yards and 10 touchdown receptions. Ridley is on a team that figures to once again throw the football at a high level with Matt Ryan under center. Ryan and the Falcons were first in the NFL in passing attempts this past season with 684 attempts. The Falcons also lost Austin Hooper in free agency and they traded away Mohammed Sanu midway through last season to the Patriots. That is a total of 139 targets that need to be spread around. I expect Hayden Hurst who the Falcons traded for and Russell Gage to see an uptick in their career production but I believe that Ridley is due to have a breakout season and I think this is going to be the year he does so.
Negatives
The emergence of Russell Gage does put some pause for concern for me considering he was receiving a lot of targets from the slot. Gage finished the season 4th on the team in targets despite Sanu being there for 7 games. Gage emerged having 25 targets total in the games that Ridley missed due to injury. I don’t think that this is going to mean a dropoff for Ridley’s production necessarily. Ridley is firmly the number 2 on a pass-heavy offense and I believe that Ridley has shown that he is a very talented player who can be a number one receiver in the NFL if given the opportunity. Another negative for Ridley is that he has also never had the high reception volume in the passing game. In Ridley’s two seasons in the NFL he only totaled 63 and 64 receptions. We have seen guys like Tyreek Hill, Kenny Golladay, and Mike Evans who all haven’t hit 100 receptions in a season have done well for themselves in fantasy so Ridley can have similar success.
Overall
I am very high on Calvin Ridley unlike a lot of people, but I believe in his talent, the situation he is in, and he is a guy who I think has shown he took a step forward in his second season in the league but just was cut short due to injuries. If you don’t think that two top 10 receivers can be on the same team in fantasy, just look at last year with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, both were top 10 when healthy. Ridley is a guy who you can draft confidently and get at a really good discount in drafts. Ridley’s current ADP is the 4.02 in half PPR formats.
Brandon's Breakdowns 